Monday, December 11, 2017

Reciprocity Passed The House But Will It Pass The Senate


Ian Argent, in a guest post at Shall Not Be Questioned, has run the numbers on HR 38 to see the chances it will pass in the Senate. He compared how the Senate voted on a proposal for carry reciprocity put forth by Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in 2013 and how he expects them to vote now.
Starting with the 2013 vote (57 Ayes to invoke cloture), I did up a spreadsheet of the likely vote results in 2017, based on current occupancy, the 2013 vote, and the Senators political stances on the issue.

I came out with maximum of 59 Aye votes (assuming Luther Strange gets to vote Aye or his replacement votes Aye).

The vote delta (because we had both gains and losses)

NH: -1 (Maggie Hassan replaced Kelly Ayotte)

IA: +1 (Joni Ernst replaced Tom Harkin)

SD: +1 (Mike Rounds replaced Tim Johnson)

WV: +1 (Shelley Moore replaced John Rockefeller)

However, what I don’t see is the 60th vote. I broke out the Nay votes who are in seats up in 2018 in states that voted for Trump

Bill Nelson is a hard NO
Claire McCaskill is a hard NO
Sherrod Brown is a hard NO
Bob Casey is a firm No
Tammy Baldwin is a hard NO
Unfortunately, I think Ian is correct. So long as the Senate has the filibuster on everything but judicial nominees, then 60 votes are going to be required.

I was looking at the vote in the House on HR 822 back in 2011. It was interesting to compare that with the vote on HR 38. HR 38 passed the House last week by a vote of 231-198. The ayes included 6 Democrats and 225 Republicans while the nays included 184 Democrats and 14 Republican. By contrast, the vote back in 2011 was 272-154 in favor of passage. The big difference can be attributed to 43 Democrats voting in favor of concealed carry reciprocity.

Of those 43 Democrats who voted in favor of concealed carry reciprocity in 2011, many are no longer in the House. A couple such as Martin Heinrich (D-NM) and Joe Donnelly (D-IN) have moved on to the Senate. In fact, they were two of the Democrats who voted in favor of Cornyn's bill in 2013. What is disturbing, however, are the 13 Democrats who voted in favor of reciprocity in 2011 who voted no on it in 2017 even though the bill contained the Fix NICS Act. What made them switch their vote on reciprocity for an aye to a nay? Did the Democrats crack the whip on those members or was it that they were warned that they would have a primary opponent funded by Mike Bloomberg?

If any of the these 13 are your representative in Congress, I'd be asking why.


  1. Andre Carson (D-IN)
  2. Jim Cooper (D-TN)
  3. Joe Courtney (D-CT)
  4. Peter DeFazio (D-OR)
  5. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) (though he was a surprise aye vote)
  6. Brian Higgins (D-NY)
  7. Rick Larsen (D-WA)
  8. Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM)
  9. Tim Ryan (D-OH)
  10. Terri Sewell (D-AL)
  11. Adam Smith (D-WA)
  12. Tim Walz (D-MN)
  13. Gene Green (D-TX)

David Codrea On Robert Mueller And Gunwalking


David Codrea along with the late Mike Vanderboegh were the two independent journalists who helped bring Operation Fast and Furious to the light of day. I doubt there is anyone around today who has a better knowledge of it than David. Thus, it was with great interest that I saw a post by David at Ammoland.com asking about former FBI Director Robert Mueller's role in the affair.

The key part:
He (Mueller) was asked to stay on beyond his 10-year term by Barack Obama, curiously just as things were starting to heat up on the Operation Fast and Furious investigations by the Senate Judiciary Committee and the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. “Gunwalking” and the Brian Terry murder took place on his watch, and Mueller’s FBI, with its confidential informants being tracked as suspects by ATF, was up to its neck in things.

Outrageously, there is no reason to expect Congress to be any more successful at exposing the full truth than they have been so far at holding Eric Holder accountable for his Fast and Furious obstruction. Nor, as we see from the preponderance of agenda reporting, lies of omission and outright fake news can establishment media be relied on. As with the original Fast and Furious reporting, expect new revelations to come from independent efforts while those with the mass reach fall back on deliberate indifference and hoping not too many notice.
 David notes that Mueller condemned the Supreme Court's decision in DC v. Heller. It may be just a coincidence and it may be that Mueller along with Eric Holder was helping to pull the strings. We just don't know. However, I will say that David rarely speculates without substantial evidence in hand.

David goes on to add that an independent film that had been shelved dealing with Operation Fast and Furious is being resurrected.

See David's post for the complete story on the film and on Mueller.

Thursday, December 7, 2017

A Day That Will Live In Infamy Plus 76 Years


Most of those who were involved in the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, whether as attackers or defenders, are not alive today to tell their story. It is up to us in the succeeding generations to remember it and to tell it.

First, let us remember those men and women on the American side who died during the attack. The casualty list is here. As to the Japanese, I'm not sure where to find any of those records.

The US Navy has an official account of the attack. It was compiled by CINCPAC for the Secretary of the Navy and was dated 15 February 1942. The report gives the disposition of the US Pacific Fleet on December 7th, an after action report, damage reports, and the current state of readiness after the attack. It is quite comprehensive.

Remembering that there was no social media at the time, the role of propaganda posters was critical for energizing the populace of the United States on to a wartime footing. Some of these posters were simple and some were not. The last poster below shows the Japanese wearing glasses. That plus buck teeth seem to be the common characterization of the Japanese in these propaganda posters. There are many other posters I could have used but I thought them too overtly racist. Unlike the war in Europe, World War II in the Pacific Theater was brutal, nasty, racist, and without mercy. A good book on war in the Pacific is John Dower's War Without Mercy.








Finally, of the movie accounts of the attack, I still think Tora Tora Tora is the best. Sometimes it is included with Amazon Prime and sometimes not.

Wednesday, December 6, 2017

For North Carolinians


The North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission has published their proposed changes to fish, wildlife, and game lands regulations. The comment period is open through February 1, 2018. These comments can by made in writing, by email, or by attending one of the nine public meetings held across the state beginning in January 2018.

Links to the changes and to the meeting schedule are embedded in the release below:



Public Comment Period Regarding Proposed Regulations Open through Feb. 1, 2018 

Public comment is sought on proposed changes to agency regulations related to wildlife management, fisheries and game lands for the 2018-19 seasons. The Wildlife Commission will conduct nine public hearings in January across the state to discuss these proposed regulations changes, including changes to deer and bear seasons.

The public is encouraged to submit comments, opinions and suggestions by Feb. 1, 2018. Comments can be submitted in-person at one of the hearings, by e-mail, (please include your name and address) online or by mail (Rule-making Coordinator, 1701 Mail Service Center, Raleigh, NC 27699-1701).




Today's The Day


Today is the day that national concealed carry reciprocity finally comes to the floor of the House of Representatives. We have been promised it since last year's Presidential campaign. It should have come up in March or April but the House Republican leadership seems to have been dragging their feet on this.

We have seen reciprocity pass the House before only to die in the Senate. HR 822 passed the House by a strong majority (272-154) back in November 2011. As much as some are upset about the pairing of carry reciprocity with the Fix NICS Act, that plus the number of red state Democrats up for re-election in the Senate may be the thing that gets it passed. The main thing in the Senate is not only to get it passed but to get it passed without amendments that would either cripple reciprocity or would add a virtual assault weapons ban to the bill. I could see Sen. Dianne Feinstein trying to do both of those things.

In the meantime, here is the schedule for today as put out by the House Majority Leader's Office.
H.R. 38 – Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act of 2017, Rules Committee Print (Closed Rule, One Hour of Debate) (Sponsored by Rep. Richard Hudson / Judiciary Committee)
Postponed Suspension Votes:
1) S. 1266 – Enhancing Veteran Care Act (Sponsored by Sen. James M. Inhofe / Veterans Affairs Committee)
2) H.Con.Res. 90 – Condemning ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya and calling for an end to the attacks in and an immediate restoration of humanitarian access to the state of Rakhine in Burma, as amended (Sponsored by Rep. Joseph Crowley / Foreign Affairs Committee)
Special Order Speeches
The House will first have to vote on House Resolution 645 which contains the rule for consideration of HR 38. The Rules Committee provided this summary of the rule:

Rule Information

COMMITTEE ACTION:
REPORTED BY RECORD VOTE of 8-3 on Tuesday, December 5, 2017.
FLOOR ACTION ON H. RES. 645: 
MANAGERS: Collins/Hastings
1. Closed rule.
2. Provides one hour of debate equally divided and controlled by the chair and ranking minority member of the Committee on the Judiciary.
3. Waives all points of order against consideration of the bill.
4. Provides that an amendment in the nature of a substitute consisting of the text of Rules Committee Print 115-45 shall be considered as adopted and the bill, as amended, shall be considered as read.
5. Waives all points of order against provisions in the bill, as amended.
6. Provides one motion to recommit with or without instructions.
The bottom line is that today is the day to light up the phones to Capitol Hill and district offices. You can be damn sure the gun prohibitionists are doing it and thanks to Giffords you know what they are going to say.

Tuesday, December 5, 2017

Too Slick By Half


The (anti-gun) cult of personality known as Giffords has produced a Concealed Carry Reciprocity Toolkit for all their uninformed followers. It provides talking points, phone scripts, email templates, pre-written tweets, ready-to-use graphics, and loaded (pun intended) town hall questions.

Here are some of their talking points:

TALKING POINTS

  • This bill would make it legal for dangerous and untrained people to carry loaded, hidden guns in more public places. If this bill passes, people who are prohibited from getting a concealed carry permit in a state with strong gun laws will be allowed to apply for a permit in a state with weaker laws. This includes convicted stalkers, domestic abusers, people convicted of violent crimes, and people with no training or experience firing a gun.

  • This bill fails to create a national standard for who should be allowed to carry a concealed weapon and undermines states rights by forcing states with strong concealed carry laws to honor permits from states with weak or non-existent concealed carry laws. Right now, states have the right to choose which states’ concealed carry permits they recognize, which is important because the requirement to carry hidden, loaded guns in public vary drastically from state to state. If this bill passes, that will no longer be the case.
  • Concealed carry reciprocity will make it nearly impossible for law enforcement officers to quickly and easily verify that people carrying a hidden, loaded weapon are doing so legally. Nearly every major law enforcement association OPPOSES this bill because of its disastrous consequences for public safety.
  • Concealed carry reciprocity will threaten the safety of victims of domestic violence, dating violence and stalking by enabling domestic violence offenders to follow their victims across state lines with loaded, concealed firearms. Preliminary data from the National Domestic Violence Hotline shows that 23% of victims reported that their abuser crossed state lines in an attempt to further assault their victims.
  • Weakening gun laws will increase violent crime in our communities. Recent research found that violent crime increased in states that loosened concealed carry laws, with 10% more murders and up to 14% more violent crime.
You can examine the entire document here.

What I think this illustrates is just how much of a top-down, Astro-turf organization that the group formerly known as Americans for Responsible Solutions really is. This was obviously created for them by public relations and media professionals. It assumes that the Know Nothings who feel that "something has to be done" are too uninformed to write their own letters or say something more than "I'm against this" when calling Congressional offices.

I find it highly ironic that a group so closely associated with the Democrats would go full "states' rights" in their opposition to carry reciprocity. While it is now the rallying cry of the progressives on this issue, it was the rallying cry for racist Democrats in the 1950s and 60s in their opposition to integration and civil rights.

Happy Repeal Day!



Amendment 21

(Ratified December 5, 1933)

Control of Liquor Returned to the States


  1. The eighteenth article of amendment to the Constitution of the United States is hereby repealed.
  2. The transportation or importation into any state, territory, or possession of the United States for delivery or use therein of intoxicating liquors, in violation of the laws thereof, is hereby prohibited.
  3. This article shall be inoperative unless it shall have been ratified as an amendment to the Constitution by conventions in the several states, as provided in the Constitution, within seven years from the date of the submission hereof to the states by the Congress.

Prohibition of "intoxicating liquors" as embodied in the 18th Amendment was repealed 84 years ago today. To slightly paraphrase President Gerald Ford who was speaking on an entirely different matter, "My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare was over".

We in the gun rights community should be especially happy to celebrate Repeal Day even if one is a teetotaler. The reason is that this period of time led to the rise of organized crime and its attendant violence. We are still living with the fallout from that area as we still have to pay a $200 tax for each and every suppressor, SBR, SBS, full-auto firearm (made before May 19, 1986), etc. that we want to buy and register. Without Prohibition and the attempted assassination of FDR, we probably wouldn't have had this gun control monstrosity imposed upon us.

So tonight I plan to raise my glass to Sen. John Blaine of Wisconsin who introduced the resolution calling for the 21st Amendment.



Proposed Amendments To HR 38 That The Rules Committee Must Take Up


The House Rules Committee was scheduled to start their hearings on the rule for HR 38 which now combines the original HR 38 plus HR 4477 or the Fix NICS Act. Amendments for consideration have begun to pile up. Most are from Democrats who want to gut the bill with a few from Republicans who either want to clarify some aspects or who want to decouple the two bills.

In my opinion, the "bipartisan" amendment from Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) and Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-FL) is the most dangerous as it would graft their so-called anti-bump stock bill which really is any modification on to HR 38.

As of 2:25PM EST:

Amendments (click headers to sort)

#Version #Sponsor(s)PartySummaryStatus
1Version 1Titus (NV)DemocratStrikes Title I of H.R. 38.Submitted
2Version 1Thompson, Mike (CA), Demings (FL)DemocratSUBSTITUTE Invests in the NICS system and expand background checks to all commercial sales.Submitted
3Version 1Thompson, Mike (CA)DemocratEstablishes a select committee on gun violence.Submitted
4Version 1Norton (DC)DemocratProhibits Title I (Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act of 2017) from taking effect until the law banning guns in U.S. Capitol buildings and grounds is repealed.Submitted
5Version 1Lofgren (CA)DemocratPrevents forum shopping by limiting concealed carry reciprocity to those who have a permit from their state of residence.Submitted
6Version 1Deutch (FL)DemocratProhibits a person from carrying a concealed firearm across state lines if they have been convicted in the past 5 years of cruelty to animals.Submitted
7Version 1Deutch (FL)DemocratPreserves a State or local governments right to restrict concealed weapons on private property.Submitted
8Version 1Bacon (NE)RepublicanExtends the renewal of concealed carry permits under LEOSA from every year to every 3 years.Submitted
9Version 1Raskin (MD)DemocratPermits law enforcement officers to conduct reasonable investigations to verify with the issuing State that an individual producing a concealed carry permit/license is eligible to carry such a firearm. Precludes the payment of attorney fees if an individual is convicted of a crime in the same proceeding in which this Act is successfully used as an affirmative defense.Submitted
10Version 1Raskin (MD)DemocratProvides that concealed carry reciprocity will not be permitted between states unless the reciprocating state issues a joint certification from the Attorney General, head of the State police, and Secretary of State that the laws of both states involved are substantially similar. Precludes reciprocity in states with no restrictions on concealed carry to similarly situated states.Submitted
11Version 1Raskin (MD)DemocratProvides that concealed carry reciprocity will not be permitted between states unless the issuing state provides a means of permit/license verification on a 24-hour basis, conducts reverification checks at least biannually, and has the authority to revoke permits/licenses if ineligibility is determined. It also creates a GAO study regarding firearms crimes committed by concealed carry permit holders.Submitted
12Version 1Raskin (MD), Norton (DC)DemocratPrecludes application of this Act in the District of Columbia.Submitted
13Version 1Nadler (NY)DemocratStates that a person who has been convicted of a violent crime within the preceding three years may not possess or carry a concealed handgun under this section in a State that by law prohibits a person from doing so on the basis of a conviction for such offense.Submitted
14Version 1Schneider (IL)DemocratProhibits a person who has been convicted of two (2) or more offenses related to driving under the influence of alcohol or controlled substances within the preceding five (5) years from possessing or carrying a concealed handgun in a State that by law prohibits a person from doing so on the basis of such convictions.Submitted
15Version 1McKinley (WV)RepublicanClarifies that complete records submitted by State authorities reporting to NICS shall include disposition records.Submitted
16Version 1Moulton (MA), Curbelo (FL)Bi-PartisanBans the manufacture, possession, or transfer of any part or combination of parts that is designed and functions to increase the rate of fire of a semiautomatic rifle (i.e. bump stocks and similarly functioning devices of different names).Submitted
17Version 1Jackson Lee (TX)DemocratTakes an affirmative step towards addressing public safety threats posed by gun violence when perpetrated by former military personnel with convictions through accountability of the Department of Defense.Submitted
18Version 1Jackson Lee (TX)DemocratProhibits any person convicted of a hate crime, as defined under section 249 or any substantially similar offense under the law of any State, from carrying under this bill.Submitted
19Version 1Jackson Lee (TX)DemocratProvides that States not be required to allow an individual to carry where such person is convicted of an offense of domestic violence or stalking as defined under the law of a State or Indian tribe, or as defined under the Violence Against Women Act.Submitted
20Version 1Demings (FL)DemocratStrikes the provision that would allow persons from other states to carry concealed weapons in school zones.Submitted
21Version 1Demings (FL)DemocratStrikes the new private right to sue a law enforcement officer in that officer’s individual capacity for any alleged violation, and to allow judges discretion in determining whether to award attorney’s fees to a prevailing party.Submitted
22Version 1Kildee (MI)DemocratEliminates the study on crimes committed using bumps stocks and inserts a provision mandating that bump stocks be treated like machine guns and silencers under the National Fire Arms Act.Submitted
23Version 1King, Steve (IA)RepublicanEnsures that Members of Congress are afforded the greatest latitude regarding interstate concealed carry, commensurate with that of Federal Judges under this legislation.Submitted
24Version 1King, Steve (IA)RepublicanEnsures that Judges are treated the same as all other law-abiding citizens regarding interstate concealed carry.Submitted
25Version 1Biggs (AZ), King, Steve (IA)RepublicanStrikes Title II, the Fix NICS Act, from the Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act of 2017.Submitted

UPDATE: The hearings are being carried on YouTube Live.