After 38 straight months of increases in the NSSF-adjusted NICS checks when compared to the same month a year previously, the streak has ended. The NSSF-adjusted NICS checks for the month of August 2013 were 2.5% lower than August 2012.
The August 2013 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,016,559 is a decrease of 2.5 percent compared to the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,042,924 in August 2012. For comparison, the unadjusted August 2013 NICS figure of 1,408,468 reflects a 7.0 percent decrease from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,514,696 in August 2012.The streak of increases began in May 2010.
This NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,016,559, while being a 2.5 percent decrease from the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,042,924 in August 2012, is an increase of 24.6 percent over checks in August 2011.
It should be noted that NICS checks are not a perfect correlation with firearm sales. This is because a number of states such as Connecticut and Utah use the NICS database to perform background checks on applicants for concealed carry permits as well as existing holders.
As to the streak being broken, we saw signs of the slowing last month. While ammo is still in relatively short supply, you can find a full gun case including AR-15s at most Walmarts.