Monday, June 4, 2012

24 Months And Counting

May marked the 24th straight month in which the NSSF-adjusted NICS checks were greater than the same period in the year before. While not a perfect correlation with gun sales, the NICS checks are indicative of the direction of the firearms market and the associated sales. The NSSF adjusts the gross NICS checks by dropping out the checks from Michigan, Kentucky, and Iowa that are used for CCW permit application purposes as well as those from checks on active CCW permits.
The May 2012 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 840,412 is an increase of 20.6 percent over the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 696,947 in May 2011. For comparison, the unadjusted May 2012 NICS figure of 1,305,392 reflects a 7.0 percent increase from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,219,872 in May 2011.
May 2012 also marks the highest number of NICS checks for the month of May over the last 13 years. It is almost double what is was in the year 2000.

One often cited reason for the growth in NICS checks - and presumably gun sales - is the fear of an Obama re-election. However, I tend to agree with Michael Bane who has argued that the growth in sales is more a reflection of the growth of Gun Culture v.2.0 and the new entrants to gun ownership especially for personal defense.

While the presidential election is rather tight, it is not a runaway in favor of Obama and the latest Rasmussen daily poll actually puts Romney in the lead. Nonetheless, if it looks like Obama is solidly in the lead come September and October, I think then it will be Katie bar the door for gun and ammo sales. I really hope it doesn't come to that.


  1. I have purchased 2 firearms within the last 6 months with no NICS check due to the concealed carry permit exemption. I bet the numbers would be even higher when you add those in.

  2. More good news we'll see twisted by the MSM in an attempt to make gun buyers less relevant. But we all know what's happening behind these numbers, and it's called "Winning."

    These don't reflect multiple sales, or as PT noted - sale not involving NICS due to an exemption.

    Along those lines, anyone reading this blog caught whining about the sudden rise in gun and ammo prices come an Obama win needs to be taken to the Interweb Woodshed and thrashed with artful language. I think Obama would have to break through a lot of history to win, but we have been steadily laying in a supply of ammo since last year. Same with guns - the wife is getting the carry gun she "might" like now, while she can still do so at a good price. Mags are purchased, too. I got that little .22 bolt gun I have been eying.

    Pro Tip: don't get caught like it's 2009 all over again. Plan now before it gets too expensive later.

  3. Ditto what PT said ...

    I've purchased or obtained (through FFL's) 4 handguns in the last two years and not been run through NICS because of my GWP.

  4. I'm not so much worried about an Obama reelection as I am of "trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see"; I have no expectation Romney will seriously address this and I find it patently obvious the current Republican Congressional leadership won't. Someday the world's appetite for US Federal government debt will decrease although for the moment we're doing well as the 'least worst place' to put your money.

    Then there's waiting for the next phase of the "Great Recession"; e.g. I'd rate the chances of a Creditanstalt Mark II as fairly high. Especially since we're not the only political entity who's budget demands massive borrowing, in a lot of cases to prop up insolvent banks.

  5. @PT and Packetman: Any gun I've bought since May of 2009 has gone around NICS as well thanks to my NC CHP.