The Sky Is Not Falling For Gun Sales

Gun sales in 2012, 2015, and 2016 were so high as to be outside the norm. They were at least one, if not two, standard deviations from the long term average. We know much of the difference was driven by outside events such as the Newtown murders and the widely-assumed probability that Hillary Clinton would succeed Obama as president. What we are seeing in 2017 is a return to the norm but at a higher level.

The National Shooting Sports Foundation just released their adjusted-NICS figure for December 2017. The figure of 1.6 million NICS checks was down 12% from the prior year. That said, it still was the 5th highest December for the adjusted NICS checks on record.

Elsewhere, I've read that 2017 was the fourth highest year on record for gun sales as measured by the NSSF adjusted NICS checks. In terms of unadjusted NICS checks, it was the second highest year on record after 2016.

It is important to remember that NICS checks in and of themselves do not have a one-to-one correlation with gun sales. There can be more than one firearm on a single Form 4473. Likewise, carry permits from states like North Carolina and Texas substitute for NICS checks. Finally, many states use the NICS system for their original and continuing checks on those that they've issued carry permits.

I will be heading to the SHOT Show which begins in two weeks. I will be reporting regularly on what I'm seeing and what I'm hearing. I am particularly interested in the tenor of conversations I have with dealers.

Doing My Part To Stimulate The (Gun) Economy - 2017 Edition

I have been doing these Black Friday posts annually since 2010. The state of the firearms industry is a bit different this year. After many years of double-digit growth, it appears the bubble has burst. In earlier years you would have been lucky to find an AR-15 upper for $400 or so. Now you can get the whole AR for that price.

Let's just say it has not been a great year for the firearms industry in general. The thought that we would have a President Hillary and you better grab while grabbing is good was crushed late on the night of November 8th when Donald J. Trump was elected president. Dennis Badurina of Dragon Leatherworks who also owns a small gun store in Tennessee has been pointing out the state of the retail firearms industry with his posts on his Facebook page for a number of months. As Dennis notes, the industry is in freefall and is in a state of contraction.

I am going to make the assumption that the industry will be using Black Friday and Cyber Monday as a major tool to rid itself of excess inventory. If you are in the market for anything, I think you should find some good deals with careful shopping.

As with last year, I have decided not to reinvent the wheel and will point out some of the better aggregations of Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales. I will be adding links to individual companies as I go through the weekend when I find something that might not be covered elsewhere.

Starting off, there is the Black Friday page of Slickguns.com. It has links to the sales at all the major big box sporting and outdoor stores.

Crowd-sourcing is a great way to put many eyes together to find the deals. The /gundeals subreddit page of Reddit is one such place. They have a Black Friday megathread going that has a little bit of everything. The other major crowd-sourced effort is on Arfcom. Their "official GD Black Friday" thread is at 6 pages and counting. The first thing that caught my eye there was $8 PMags. You can never have enough magazines! Now if I can find some less expensive CZ P-09 mags, I'll be in hog heaven.

If you trend more towards the tactical, SoldierSystems.net has a dedicated post that is continually updated with Black Friday sales.

As for me, I'm good on most things. However, I'm in the market for a good quality handgun safe/strongbox with a mechanical keypad. My granddaughter Olivia Grace is almost three and has a little sister due in April. Little fingers can get in places they shouldn't be and I want to protect against that.

Finally, I'd like to remind everyone that No Lawyers - Only Guns and Money is an Amazon affiliate. All commissions that I earn from your purchases go to non-profit gun rights organizations like the Second Amendment Foundation and the NRA Civil Rights Defense Fund.

If you are in the market for an inexpensive tablet device, the Kindle Fire 7 is only $29.99. It was $33.33 last year. The Complementary Spouse uses her Fire daily to keep up with email, crafts, and family.

UPDATE:

There is a thread at 24hourcampfire.com with some more hunting related Black Friday specials.

My friend Andy Langlois of Ching and Rhodesian sling fame is having a sale on all his products. Save 20 percent off all his products from Nov. 22 – 28 and 10 percent off all products from Nov. 29 – Dec. 24, 2017. I have both his belts, both style of slings, and even a couple of holsters by Andy and the quality is top-notch. Go to https://www.andysleather.com/collections/black-friday-sale. Use the code "BlackFriday".

UPDATE II:

Steve Johnson at The Firearm Blog has posted what he considers his Top 5 deals in firearms for Black Friday. You can find it here.

Tom Gresham of Gun Talk Radio has compiled his own list of holiday deals in firearms, ammo, and accessories. He has a special page for it.

Doing My Part To Stimulate The (Gun) Economy - 2015 Edition

In years gone by, I have worked hard to include every firearm, tactical, big box sporting goods store, and accessories sale that I could find for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Call me lazy but this year I will point you to two very good compilations that already exist. I don't see any reason to reinvent the wheel or do extra work when others have already done it.

First, Slickguns.com has done an extraordinary job in compiling the Black Friday/Cyber Monday ads from all the major players and then some. It can be found here.

Second, for those who are seeking more tactical items, Soldier Systems has their Black Friday list which is sponsored by Tactical Distributors. You can find it here. If it is like last year, it will be a work in progress with more and more sales and discounts added.

One sale I got in my email box that I haven't seen in either of these two lists is from Going Gear. If you are looking for a high lumen flashlight, then they can help. Find them here. Another sales going on is from ALG Defense. They are offering 20% off all their AK and AR triggers plus some other stuff. ALG Defense is connected with Geissele which is also having a Black Friday event. It is listed on the Slickguns page.

Feel free to add sales and discounts you come across in the comments section. I would welcome it and I'm others will find it helpful.

Surprising Numbers From IWI About Tavor Sales

I will admit that I was more than a little surprised when I read the following press release announcing that IWI US (Israel Weapons Industries' US subsidiary) had shipped their 20,000th Tavor SAR bullpup carbine. The market for a bullpup like the Tavor SAR or the Steyr Aug would seem a bit limited given the design and the price but obviously I'm wrong in my estimation. And reading their press release below, it seems I'm not the only one wrong in my estimation. Sales were three times greater than IWI US projected themselves.

The press release announcing this milestone:

Harrisburg, PA (March 2014) - IWI US, Inc. a subsidiary of Israel Weapon Industries (IWI) Ltd., proudly announces the 20,000th TAVOR® SAR has been shipped. The IWI US facility was officially opened in December of 2012 and began shipments to distributors of the highly anticipated; Israeli designed and built rifle in late March of 2013.

2013 became the year of the TAVOR® SAR, with unexpected demand that tripled projected sales and garnered the receipt of two coveted awards: American Rifleman’s Golden Bullseye Award for Rifle of the Year and the popular blog, TheTruthAboutGuns.com, Rifle of the Year. IWI US doubled their employee base to meet the demand for the TAVOR® SAR, as well as hired additional management as the product found a receptive audience in the law enforcement community.

IWI US expects to expand its facility in 2014 to accommodate continued growth. Additionally, IWI US will launch an online store with a variety of IWI US approved accessories for the TAVOR® SAR in the coming weeks.

“This is a watershed moment for IWI US and our employees,” Michael Kassnar, Vice President of Sales and Marketing for IWI US commented. “We could not have met our goals without the enthusiasm, dedication and the Pennsylvania work ethic of the IWI US team.”

The Anti-Anti-Gun Buyback

In some areas of the country, police departments conduct gun buybacks in the mistaken belief that it will "take guns off the streets". The reality is that it allows people to dump old clunkers as well as allow criminals to ditch hot guns without a question.

In a refreshing turn of events, the Jefferson County Sheriff's Department in Pine Bluff, Arkansas just had a gun auction that raised over $125,000 for the Sheriff's Department and the Tri-County Drug Task Force. The auction was held in accordance with Arkansas law (A.C.A. § 5-5-101) that mandates the public auction of seized weapons and contraband by the law enforcement agency.

Courtesy of the Jefferson County Sheriff's Department

This was the first auction that the Sheriff's Department held since 2005 when they only netted about $15,000 in proceeds. This auction was the largest auction in the county's history.

Approximately 600 people from across the state attended the auction with 380 registered bidders. Approximately 204 checks were processed through the NICS. However, 6 individuals hoping to leave with a firearm were disappointed after receiving 3-day delayed notices and one (1) individual was denied approval to purchase firearms by the ATF.

Each gun auctioned went to the highest bidder. The highest bid at of $2,375.00 was for a Winchester .38 WCF L.A. Rifle and the lowest bid was $5.00 for a Marksman 177 Caliber BB Pistol.

I like this quote from the JCSD's press release: "Today’s auction provided citizens an informative, secure, and safe way to buy firearms at a bargain."

I think this is a sheriff that get's it.

Gun Sales Are Seeking A New Normal

The National Shooting Sports Foundation has released its adjusted-NICS figures for the month of November 2013.  It shows a drop of 14.2% from November 2012. 

The November 2013 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,308,100 is a decrease of 14.2 percent compared to the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,525,177 in November 2012. For comparison, the unadjusted November 2013 NICS figure of 1,805,759 reflects a 9.6 percent decrease from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,997,703 in November 2012. NSSF-adjusted NICS for November 2013 is the second highest on record — an 18.8% increase over November 2011.

In many ways this really shouldn't be surprising. While the peak in November 2012 was pre-Newtown, it reflects the uncertainty for gun owners of another presidential term for Barack Obama. If you look in the chart below of the adjusted NICS checks for the month of November going back to year 2000, you see definite spikes in 2008 and 2012.

 As I wrote last month, gun sales as reflected in the adjusted-NICS checks are trending towards a new normal. They are coming off their post-Newtown peaks but are still at a much higher overall level than they were pre-Newtown. Firearms manufacturers are still trying to catch up with the demand and are working through their backlog of orders. Tom Taylor of Mossberg confirmed this last Sunday on Tom Gresham's Gun Talk in the first hour of the show.

NICS checks are an indicator of trends in gun sales but are not perfectly correlated with them. This is because many states use the NICS database for initial and continuing checks on their concealed carry permit holders. Moreover, in many states such as North Carolina, a concealed handgun permit substitutes for a NICS check.

October NICS Show Slight Decline

The October 2013 NSSF-adjusted NICS checks are in and they show a slight decline from the same month in 2012. Nonetheless, if you look at the chart of NSSF-adjusted NICS checks for the last 14 years, both 2012 and 2013 are substantially higher than prior years.

From the NSSF:

The October 2013 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,113,818 is a decrease of 0.5 percent compared to the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,118,994 in October 2012. For comparison, the unadjusted October 2013 NICS figure of 1,679,099 reflects a 4.6 percent increase from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,604,743 in October 2012.

The next chart is quite interesting. It shows the last 12 months of year over year data. You can see the spike in December 2012 and January 2013 presumably caused the shooting in Newtown and the attendant rise in the call for more gun control. After that, it follows the more normal curve of trending down towards summer and then starting to show a rise as the hunting season arrives.

 

 As the distance from the tragedy in Newtown has grown, the year over year gains have diminished until in August and October they actually show decreases. I think that we are at a new normal with some months being higher and some months being less.That said, the slight increases and decreases will be at a much higher base than pre-2012.

While the NSSF-adjusted NICS checks are not a perfect correlation for gun sales, they are a good indicator of them. For the firearms industry the great growth spurts may be over and their backlogs decreasing but they are still producing at a level that is significantly higher than in the past.

Interesting Graphic On Gun Sales

A stock investing website, The Wall Street Cheat Sheet, had an article yesterday discussing the financial results for Ruger. The author of the article was looking at the impact of proposed gun control laws on gun sales.

The law of unintended consequences is hitting its mark with politicians and gun owners. Amid a push for tighter gun control laws over the past year, an increase in firearm sales is boosting the nation’s leading gun manufacturer.

 The article concluded that the big push for gun control post-Newtown was a big factor in the growth of gun sales.

The graphic below is from a presentation that Smith and Wesson made to stock analysts. It plots the monthly NICS checks for each calendar year from 2008 to the present.

And then there is this:

According to an analysis of the gun industry by the Associated Press, the federal government has conducted roughly the same number of background checks for gun owners and prospective buyers under Obama’s first term, as it did under George W. Bush’s first six years of presidency. For the first time since 1993, the number of federally licensed retail gun dealers in the U.S. increased in 2010 and 2011, adding 1,167 more licensed dealers.

I guess Obama really is the world's best gun salesman. 

The February 2013 NICS Check Report

The National Shooting Sports Foundation has released their adjusted-NICS check statistics for February. Contrary to what I thought might happen, February 2013 checks were up 29.1% over the same period in 2012.

The February 2013 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,634,309 is an increase of 29.1 percent over the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,266,344 in February 2012. For comparison, the unadjusted February 2013 NICS figure of 2,298,561 reflects a 32.5 percent increase from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,734,646 in February 2012.

This marks the 33rd straight month with increases in NSSF-adjusted NICS checks over the same period in the prior year.

I had thought perhaps low inventories might have broken this string of increases but obviously not. In retrospect, visits to both small and large gun shops in the Piedmont Triad area of North Carolina should have told me that. In the early part of February I visited two small gun stores in the Kernersville area that were packed even though the inventory was down. I also visited the Winston-Salem Gander Mountain which actually had a decent inventory. That store was also crowded.

As always, it should be noted that there is not a direct correlation between NICS checks and gun sales. This is because a few states such as  Kentucky and Iowa use the National Instant Criminal Background Check System for CCW purposes. Moreover, in a number of states such as North Carolina, a concealed carry permit is accepted as a substitute for a NICS check.

Second Highest Adjusted NICS Checks On Record

The National Shooting Sports Foundation has posted their adjusted NICS checks for the month of January 2013 and they are astounding. Not only does this mark the 32nd straight month of increases compared to the prior period the year before but the numbers for January constitute the second highest month on record. Only the previous month of December eclipsed the January numbers.

The numbers:

The January 2013 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,790,154 is an increase of 94.4 percent over the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 920,840 in January 2012. For comparison, the unadjusted January 2013 NICS figure of 2,483,230 reflects an 81.4 percent increase from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,368,816 in January 2012.

94%! The anecdotal reports that I have read and heard about suggest many of the firearms buyers are first time buyers who have been spurred on in their purchases by the clamor for gun control since the Newtown shootings. As others have commented, just how many of these new gun owners are going to surrender a firearm that they have just bought at inflated prices? Precious few.

Looking at the chart below which compares the current period with the year prior period you can see a substantial increase starting in November 2012. While earlier months do show increases, it is nothing like the last three months and especially December 2012 and January 2013. If the NSSF-adjusted NICS checks are down in February 2013 compared to February 2012 I would speculate that it is tied to the low inventories in many gun shops.

As always I need to add the caveat that NICS checks are not a direct correlation with firearms purchases. Holders of concealed carry permits in a number of states do not have to go through a NICS check as the permit suffices for that. Moreover, states such as Kentucky, Iowa, and Michigan use the NICS system to do part of the background check for new carry permits as well as using it to check on existing permits. That said, the adjusted NICS checks are a good indicator of trends in firearm sales.

Walmart And Guns

SayUncle had a post up yesterday evening about the meeting that representatives from Walmart will be having with Vice-President Joe Biden and his "gun violence" (sic) task force. He posted a reader suggestion to call Walmart's corporate office. I am reposting it below.

Ok, everybody, don’t call stores, call corporate. Here’s the number: (479)273-4000

That gets you the home office. Tell them you want to express an opinion and they’ll immediately transfer you to another line where you will talk to a real person who will take your comment and record the call.

They are getting calls going both ways right now. They said that they have made not decisions going forward except to hear what Biden’s group says and then weigh that with the comments from their customers.

So start calling. Have your family and friends call. Overwhelm their switchboard with calls and we may keep them on our side.

SayUncle said to let them know that if they cave, you and your family will no longer shop there and that you'll urge all your friends to do the same. I agree fullheartedly.

The one thing big business understands is money and sales. Walmart had dropped the gun department in many stores but brought it back due to the demand. The only reason that they started selling AR-15s in the first place was due to consumer demand.

As of June 2012, there were 67,369 Federal Firearms Licensees in the United States. This does not include those with a Curios and Relics FFL. Out of those 67,369 FFLs, 1,823 were held by the various Walmart stores around the country. This is about 2.7% of all FFLs. My point is that you have plenty of other options when it comes to purchasing guns and ammo. While Walmart is convenient, they are not the be all and end all in the gun market.

Walmart does not live and die by your gun and ammo purchases but they do live and die by your other purchases. If 90 million American gun owners suddenly said we aren't going to do business with you anymore, they would be hurting. That is what they need to understand.

December Adjusted NICS - Just As Suspected

The National Shooting Sports Foundation released their adjusted NICS check numbers for the month of December and they are almost off the charts.

Above is the graph of the NSSF-adjusted NICS checks for the last 13 Decembers. The only decrease over the previous since Obama was first elected is December 2009. That probably was reflective of the surge the prior year.

Here are the numbers as reported by NSSF:

The December 2012 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 2,237,731 is an increase of 58.6 percent over the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,410,937 in December 2011. For comparison, the unadjusted December 2012 NICS figure of 2,776,105 reflects a 49.7 percent increase from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,854,400 in December 2011.

December 2012 also marked the 31st straight month with increases over the same month in the prior year.

 It is important to note that NICS checks are not a perfect correlation with gun sales. States such Iowa, Michigan, and Kentucky use the NICS system for background checks on both new and existing concealed carry permits. Moreover, in a number of states such as North Carolina, a concealed carry permit is accepted in lieu of running the NICS check.

For the entire year 2012, adjusted NICS checks were up 27.7% over 2011.

Lies, Damned Lies, And Statistics

Jim Shepherd, publisher and editor of The Outdoor Wire, called out the Associated Press today for some of their reporting on gun sales. We all know that gun sales have been surging throughout the year. However, the AP would have you believe sales in Colorado and Connecticut, scenes of horrible tragedies, were off.

From the AP story "Fewer excited gun-buyers in Colorado and Connecticut":

The government's figures suggested far less interest in purchasing guns late in the year in Connecticut and Colorado, where background checks also increased but not nearly as much as most other states ... Only New Jersey and Maryland showed smaller increases than Colorado in December from one month earlier.

Sales must really be impacted there, right?

Not exactly as Jim notes:

Sounds reasonable, right? After all, these states are both reeling from the havoc caused there by crazies.

Not necessarily. While the story is accurate that the biggest surges in background checks for gun purchases were in the South and West, the numbers weren't exactly insignificant in either Connecticut or Colorado. The increases in NICS checks, and as may be implied, gun sales, in those states were only sixty five and sixty-four percent, respectively. Colorado's checks frose from 35,009 in October to 53,453 in December. Connecticut went from 18,761 to 29,246 during the same period.

It might be more accurate to say that "despite horrific tragedies, the demand for firearms in both Connecticut and Colorado grew, although not as fast as the red-hot markets in the South and West."

But that wouldn't fit the narrative, although the observation that "background checks also tend to increase after mass shootings, when gun enthusiasts fear restrictive measures are imminent."

 Wouldn't fit the narrative should be the new motto for the mainstream press when it comes to gun sales and the use of guns for self-protection.

November NICS Checks Set All Time Record

In not unexpected news, the National Shooting Sports Foundation is reporting that the NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System total hit an all-time high in November 2012. This follows on the heels of the announcement that Black Friday was also a record breaker. The previous high had been December 2011.

The November 2012 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,525,177 is an increase of 38.5 percent over the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,101,076 in November 2011. For comparison, the unadjusted November 2012 NICS figure of 1,997,703 reflects a 30.8 percent increase from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,527,454 in November 2011.

This marks the 30th straight month in which the NICS checks have surpassed the number in the same month of the prior year. You can see this trend in the NSSF chart below of adjusted NICS checks for the past 12 months.

 If you want to see the impact of the election and re-election of Barack Obama has played on these numbers, examine the chart below.  November 2008 and November 2012 are significantly higher than the other months of November since the year 2000.

It should be remembered that these NICS checks do not have a direct correlation with sales though they are indicative of sales trends. States such as Kentucky, Iowa, and Michigan use the NICS checks for background checks on those applying for concealed carry permits as well as to check on active CCW holders. Furthermore, as readers pointed out on my Black Friday sales post, in many states including North Carolina holders of concealed carry permits are exempted from the NICS background check.

Wall Street Journal Notices Impact Of Election On Gun Sales

Today's Wall Street Journal has an article looking at the impact of the upcoming Presidential election on gun sales. The article by Shelly Banjo examines retailers' stocking plans, the rise in both NICS checks and excise tax collections, and manufacturers' backlogs.

Cabela's has two stocking strategies for this fall and winter season - one if Obama is re-elected and one if Mitt is elected.

The Sidney, Neb.-based retailer and other companies in the guns-and-ammo business say if Mr. Obama wins a second term they are preparing for a surge in sales—the same as they saw after he was elected in 2008—from buyers fearful the president would back policies to make buying a gun more difficult. If Republican challenger Mitt Romney wins, though, the chain plans to stock more items such as waterproof boots and camouflage hunting gear.

"If Mitt Romney is elected and there's no perceived threat on the freedom to own guns, people might decide to spend disposable income on things like outerwear instead," said Joe Arterburn, a Cabela's spokesman.

The article notes that Cabela's is offering to pay suppliers so as to go to the head of the line for the distribution of limited inventory. Their normal payment cycle is as long as 120 days from receipt of the merchandise. To get guns and ammo for their stores, they are moving this up to 15 days. From a business and accounting standpoint, this is very significant.

When the respective presidential campaigns were asked for comment, the Obama campaign responded with the usual platitudes about President Obama respecting the Second Amendment. The Romney campaign declined to comment. In my opinion, this was a lost opportunity on their part. They should have responded that voters obviously don't trust Obama to protect their Second Amendment rights and are voting with their pocketbooks. Like I said, a lost opportunity.

CBS This Morning Notices Rising Gun Sales

In a relatively balanced report, CBS's Tammy Leitner discusses the rise in new gun sales in the United States for CBS This Morning. Interviewed for the story that aired yesterday are a Los Angeles mom who wants to protect herself and her kids and Alan Gottlieb of the Second Amendment Foundation.

CBS attributes the rise in gun sales to a bi-fold fear of rising crime and fear of the gun control measures a second Obama Administration might push. I don't disagree fear is one of the driving factors behind rising gun sales. However, I don't think it is the only factor in the growth of gun sales. Other factors that didn't make the story is that shooting is fun as well as the desire by many to take responsibility for their own safety. Taking responsibility does not have to be driven by fear. It is more akin to buying property and casualty insurance. You hope that you never have to use it but it is smart risk management to protect against great loss.

Ruger's suspension of new orders is referred to but erroneously states that they are still refusing the new orders.  They resumed taking new orders on May 29th.

25 Months And Counting

June 2012 marks the 25th straight month in which the number of NICS checks made during the month surpassed the number from the prior year.

Graphic by NSSF

From NSSF:

The June 2012 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 846,437 is an increase of 24.5 percent over the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 679,840 in June 2011. For comparison, the unadjusted June 2012 NICS figure of 1,290,210 reflects an 11.4 percent increase from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,157,714 in June 2011.

Graphic by NSSF

As the NSSF noted, June 2012 was a 24.5% increase over June 2011. However, the difference between June 2012 and the earlier years is very significant. June 2009 and 2010 look to have about 600,00 adjusted NICS checks or a quarter-million less than this year. That is a large difference!

It should be noted that NICS checks are not a perfect correlation with firearms sales but are a strong indication of general trends in firearm sales. Some states such as Kentucky, Iowa and Michigan use the NICS system for their CCW permit application checks as well as checks on active CCW holders. Conversely, in states such as North Carolina where the Concealed Handgun Permit is an approved substitute for a NICS check, purchases by permit holders will not be counted.

I don't think we can know conclusively if this continuing trend in the increase of NICS checks is due to the fear of an Obama reelection or just the rise of Gun Culture v2.0. I do know that strong sales have been reflected in the stock prices of companies like Smith and Wesson. Today, the stock hit a 52-week high at $9.50 per share which reflects a four-fold increase in share price.

24 Months And Counting

May marked the 24th straight month in which the NSSF-adjusted NICS checks were greater than the same period in the year before. While not a perfect correlation with gun sales, the NICS checks are indicative of the direction of the firearms market and the associated sales. The NSSF adjusts the gross NICS checks by dropping out the checks from Michigan, Kentucky, and Iowa that are used for CCW permit application purposes as well as those from checks on active CCW permits.

The May 2012 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 840,412 is an increase of 20.6 percent over the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 696,947 in May 2011. For comparison, the unadjusted May 2012 NICS figure of 1,305,392 reflects a 7.0 percent increase from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,219,872 in May 2011.

May 2012 also marks the highest number of NICS checks for the month of May over the last 13 years. It is almost double what is was in the year 2000.

One often cited reason for the growth in NICS checks - and presumably gun sales - is the fear of an Obama re-election. However, I tend to agree with Michael Bane who has argued that the growth in sales is more a reflection of the growth of Gun Culture v.2.0 and the new entrants to gun ownership especially for personal defense.

While the presidential election is rather tight, it is not a runaway in favor of Obama and the latest Rasmussen daily poll actually puts Romney in the lead. Nonetheless, if it looks like Obama is solidly in the lead come September and October, I think then it will be Katie bar the door for gun and ammo sales. I really hope it doesn't come to that.

23 Skidoo

23 Skidoo was a slang expression from the Roaring '20s. It could just as easily be applied to the latest NSSF-adjusted NICS figures for April 2012 which represent the 23rd straight month in which they have increased when compared to the previous year.

The April 2012 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 931,658 is an increase of 10.5 percent over the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 843,484 in April 2011. For comparison, the unadjusted April 2012 NICS figure of 1,416,074 reflects a 5.7 percent increase from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,339,673 in April 2011.

To see the year over year data graphically for the last 12 months, go here. You can also see how April 2012 compares to the previous 12 years by going here.

It should be remembered that NICS checks are used in some states such as Kentucky, Iowa, and Michigan for CCW background checks on new and existing permit holders. Nonetheless, while NICS checks are not a direct correlation to firearm sales, they certainly do illustrate the growth trend in those sales because of their use for purchases background checks at the point-of-purchase.

Ruger Has Stellar Quarter

The gun prohibitionists are desperate to promote the meme that the growth in NICS checks do not accurately reflect the growth in firearm sales. Unfortunately, they just cannot ignore financial statement releases from public companies such as Sturm, Ruger & Co. Financial statement releases from public companies are not only released to the public but filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. They must be accurate unlike any statement made by the likes of CSGV and other gun prohibitionists.

Yesterday, after the close of the stock market, Ruger released its first quarter results and they were impressive. Their net earnings per share - profit - nearly doubled as compared to the same quarter in 2011. Moreover, they have orders in hand for 1.2 million firearms which exceed the number shipped in 2011.

The highlights of the results as pointed out by Ruger CEO Michael Fifer:

• Our earnings nearly doubled from the first quarter of 2011, driven by the 49% growth in sales and our ongoing focus on continuous improvement in our operations.
• New product introductions were a significant component of our sales growth as new product sales represented $40.8 million or 37% of sales in the first quarter of 2012. New product introductions in the first quarter of 2012 included:
• Ruger American Rifle
• SR22 pistol
• 10/22 Take Down rifle
• The estimated sell-through of our products from independent distributors to retailers in 2012 increased 62% from the first quarter of 2011. During this period, National Instant Criminal Background Check System ("NICS") background checks (as adjusted by the National Shooting Sports Foundation) increased 23%.
• On March 21, 2012, the Company announced that it temporarily suspended the acceptance of new orders. In the first quarter of 2012, orders for 1.2 million units were received by the Company, which exceeded the total units shipped during 2011. The Company anticipates resuming the acceptance of orders at the end of May 2012.
• Cash generated from operations during the first quarter of 2012 was $21.8 million. At March 31, 2012, our cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaled $95.8 million, an increase of $14.7 million from December 2011. Our current ratio is 3.1 to 1 and we have no debt.
• In the first quarter of 2012, capital expenditures totaled $3.0 million. We expect to invest approximately $20 million for capital expenditures during 2012.
• At March 31, 2012, stockholders' equity was $149.8 million, which equates to a book value of $7.82 per share, of which $5.01 per share was cash and equivalents.
• On March 31, 2012, the Company completed the fourth and final quarter of its "1.2 Million Gun Challenge to Benefit the NRA." During this year-long challenge, Ruger donated a total of $1,253,700 to the NRA. We believe that Ruger is the first firearms manufacturer to build and ship more than one million firearms in one year.

The financial tables that accompanied this release can be found here.

I am not an accountant but I generally can understand balance sheets, income statements, and statements of cash flows. Just looking at a few key items you see that their cash from operations increased by over $1 million dollars as compared to the same quarter in 2011, their net inventories are down, and their allowance for obsolete or slow moving inventory fell by almost 60%. The last two items tell me that not only are firearms flying out the door but Ruger is making mostly what people want.

If you have the time and the inclination, you can listen in on Ruger's Annual Meeting which is today and starts at 9am. I'm sure you will hear lots of cheers from shareholders. If I could have been in New Hampshire today, I would have been one of those cheering the loudest as the stock is trading near its all time high and the quarterly dividend just tripled.

For instructions on how to view or listen to the annual meeting, go here.