Trainer John Farnam of Defense Training International puts out an occasional newsletter with his quips, quotes, and observations. In a post sent out on Sunday, he described a conversation with the CEO of a major ammunition manufacturer.
It appears the choke-point for ammo production is not powder or primers but rather brass.
I spent last Friday with the CEO of a major domestic ammunition manufacturer. While there, I was able to get a small quantity of high-performance 40S&W and 45ACP ammunition, as well as some 9mm hardball. He also had some 40S&W practice ammunition and several boxes of high-performance 308.
No high-performance 9mm, and no 223/5.56x45 of any kind. I would surely have acquired some had it been there!
He indicated his current in-hand orders will consume his entire manufacturing capacity for at least the next twenty-four months, and that is assuming no major change in world events.
He also indicted the real choke-point is brass casings. Propellent powder, bullets, even primers are currently in at least adequate supply. Conversely, brass is chronically hard to get, and generalized shortages are holding-up production, industry-wide.