Sunday, February 16, 2014

California Carry Licenses Could Reach 1.4 Million In First Year

The CalGuns Foundation has calculated that the number of carry licenses in California could reach as high as 1.4 million if the Peruta decision stands and California goes "shall issue".
Following the Ninth Circuit decision holding "good cause" requirements unconstitutional, The Calguns Foundation projects that the number of California carry licensees will skyrocket during the first year of effective "shall-issue" licensing.

According to data sent to The Calguns Foundation by the California Department of Justice, the number of California CCW licensees in 2013 totaled about 56,000. However, in applying projections to state and county population figures from the state's Department of Finance, Calguns believes that the number of licensees in California might reach as high as 1.4 million in the Golden State during the first year of a "shall issue" system.
 They have calculated the growth of carry licenses on a county-by-county basis which can be seen here.  Their table provides estimates for a range from one to five percent of a county's population with the expectation that two percent will be the most likely. CalGuns has used available census statistics, California Department of Justice statistics on both carry licenses and firearms purchases, and the experience of other states to make this projections.

Looking this over, it is is interesting to look at the table to see what might transpire in some of the more anti-gun counties. For instance, San Franciso County might grow from two carry permits to an estimated 12,707 at the 2% level. While San Francisco is the most extreme example, many other counties could see multiple 1,000% increases such as LA which could see an 88,000% increase in carry permits at the 2% level.

You have to wonder if the state's anti-gun politicians might moderate their extremism if they suddenly found a good number of their constituents had carry licenses. It is easy to demonize a group of people when you only have a few examples like the two who have carry licenses in San Francisco County. It is much harder to do if you have substantial numbers and everyone knows someone with a carry license.


  1. California will die on this hill to prevent such large numbers of CC permits. Count on it!


    Who has the popcorn?

  3. Peruta is not yet settled - might go en banc, and if that's refused SD might petition the Supes for cert. That said, the sheriffs and the legislature can be counted on to delay as long as they can. They are way too invested in the current legal regime to roll over. Expect more litigation even if this particular case settles. For instance - exorbitant fees and training requirements are in place now and the legislature may do what Illinois did in Moore v. Madigan.

  4. California will do a lot of delaying of any law. I am only a part time resident. I work hard to keep my residency in PA. It ain't as easy as it sounds.
    They will make every difficult option happen, interviews, fingerprints, pictures, extended background checks and possible mental health expert interview. All on my dime.
    My Florida, Utah and Pennsylvania licenses mean nothing here. My NRA Instructor rating means nothing.
    I am celebrating the success if a court case, but recognize the enemy is still strong and willing to spend MY tax dollars to infinity and beyond.

  5. For those talking about "exorbitant fees and training requirements". $150-ish plus cost of pics and fingerprints plus 8-ish hours of training was the -standard- cost and training req. of shall-issue when the wave started in the late '80s early '90s.

    That most states have since reduced theirs from those highs, setting a new normal, doesn't make those costs and requirements prima facia "exorbitant", just "high" compared to places that have been working on them longer. Get more permits out there and you'll build the political pressure to make the existing law better, like everywhere else.

  6. as much as i hope it does increase, it seems a bit of a stretch to assume that the percentage will increase any higher than the northern counties currently. most northern counties effectively are shall issue. i live in del norte co where any law abiding citizen can get a permit, and we have fewer than 190. i dont see the numbers increasing to the projected 1000+ because of this ruling.