Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Hillary Regains Lead In NH But Still Within Margin Of Error

I normally do not report on the Democratic primary unless it reflects on gun rights. However, I got an email on Tuesday with an offer to see the pre-release results of the Topline WBUR survey of likely New Hampshire Democratic voters so long as I didn't release the results before 5am EDT Wednesday.

I'm no fool. I jumped on the offer!

It looks like that post-Democratic debate that Hillary Clinton (D-carpetbagger) is now back in the lead against Bernie Sanders (D-VT). Even though Sanders and Clinton are essentially tied, the movement by Clinton from 31% to 38% is beyond the margin of error.
Vote preference with leaners Sept 2015 Oct 2015 
Bernie Sanders 35% 34%
Hillary Clinton 31% 38%
Joe Biden 14% 9%
Martin O'Malley 1% 1%
Jim Webb 2% 2%
Lincoln Chaffee 1% less than 1%
Lawrence Lessig NA 0%
Some other candidate 4% 4%
Would not vote 2% 3%
Don't Know / Refused 10% 9%
Margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.

The poll did have some interesting tidbits. First, the majority of those polled thought Clinton could win (71%) in the general election while only a minority thought Sanders could win (39%). Clinton's numbers rose significantly from September to October.

Second, while the overwhelming majority (80%) thought Bernie Sanders was trustworthy, only a bare majority (53%) thought Hillary Clinton was trustworthy. These numbers stayed consistent (+/- 2% points) between September and October.

It will be interesting to see how this continues to play out.

WBUR Boston has their take on their poll here. You can read the whole poll results here including the questions and methodology.

1 comment:

  1. I'm no fan of Bernie, but it troubles me that people would vote for someone they describe as untrustworthy, and believe that such as person has a better chance at winning. Our country has fallen to the dark side...